Early winner/loser in 5g, Ericsson ERIC, Nokia NOK

I like to start collecting stock tickers for after the new year, stocks that have been beaten down and window dressed more than they deserve. Nokia is now on the list. I have tried to own this 5g play for the last year and it has stopped me out every time; too eager and too loose with the technicals. Regardless, at these levels, if Nokia does not get bought out, and that's a big if now with cheap money still sloshing about, I want to own it. It really deserves to bottom here, and if it starts basing it's worth a crack in the new year on a technical break. If it ends up going nowhere I think it will be bought out, but the price may have to be suppressed for a long while for that to become palatable.

The worst case scenario would likely be a merger, though I would suspect NOK would pop on that and the other half would get dragged down, but it depends on the partner, maybe ERIC, or MSFT who would want a cheap price after taking it in the shorts on the handsets, but anyone who wants in the 5g hardware space would be on this. MSFT has had a great run, and maybe taking over NOK would represent the top in the stock. Also worth noting that trying to catch NOK may be the foolish pick in the 5g space, as ERIC is every bit as competitive, and its price action is better. So far ERIC is the winner, I own it and will add. I view these as very long holds, 5-10 yrs likely.

China tensions are tailwinds for both these stocks. I have zero interest in any China stocks right now due to escalating unrest, rising tariffs, security concerns, and massive China debt. There is not a lot of competition in this space, and  both companies are winning contracts on a steady basis. 5g is a certainty. ERIC is showing positive price action, NOK broken for now.

Carvana CVNA

I've tweeted about Carvana in the past and it still looks like it has legs. Not completely my kind of chart action, it is a bit of a grinder, but I will stick to my call that it is going to $140. They have monster growth, an ex-con don, cement buckets of experience in the used car industry, and a whole rocket stage full of short fuel, filled by bears who get enraged looking at those car vending machines and the end of the ICE age. It's no MSFT, but its nearly a traders dream.

MSFT fully baked

Targets reached. Nice one! I know its been a while since I posted but am still here, still trading. I'll try and crank out some posts...

MSFT chart beauty, aging well

On January 4 2012 I posted this chart:

Here is what we have now:

Well, things are working out fine in this trade, so the question is, whats next? I think we can hold to the IBM example in the Jan 4 post. This should fill in the right side of this pattern, so the next target should be that 50 to 55, after that 75 then 100. Again, this is a very long term play, so its not likely to get there this year or even next, but who knows.  I am still holding. Patience grasshopper.

Here is a link to the old post.

Investing for everyone

As a full time trader I always struggle how to come up with a system that the average person with a 401k or other savings can use and invest as safely as possible with the least amount of time and stress. I understand that for most people following the markets and dealing with stocks is akin to trips to the dentist, necessary but uncomfortable, long stretches of tedium with sharp hits of pain and then hopefully a nice clean smile.

I just read an interesting article on Warren Buffett that attempts to reverse engineer his technique for stock picking. If the results are correct, the article comes up with a stock screen (using a free online screener, finviz) that combined with a very basic understanding of technical analysis could produce a simple strategy.

So you would end up with a hybrid fundamental and technical system for stock picking for long term investing. Here is the article, and a super simple suggestion for understanding technical analysis. Combine these two parts with a 7-10% stop loss rule and one would be 90% of the way there:

Click on this for the seeking alpha article.

Click here for the amazon link to a very basic technical analysis book.

It was a good swing trading environment from June, but with the pullback here, elections looming, Euro and Asia news, mixed signals from the dollar, bonds, and vix, etc., holding for traders is more difficult right now. The good news is that earnings season started this week, and these morning gappers have acted very well. JBHT NPSP STM STEM ECL were all very tradeable today even though the market has been soft. Yesterday GOV PVTB FAST CLWR FOLD were all pre-gappers that offered trades. My swing trade hat is off and my daytrade on. I will swing but only positions with good cushion from my entry.

SPY chop

The market is just chopping around in a range, a real mess. Seems a market only for scalpers or long term holds with wide tolerance. Best to wait for some direction. If you are holding any longs (or shorts) for an extended period, plot them with the SPY and make sure they have their own independent momentum, and are not just chopping around with everything else.

Here is a possible scenario...