Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Early winner/loser in 5g, Ericsson ERIC, Nokia NOK

I like to start collecting stock tickers for after the new year, stocks that have been beaten down and window dressed more than they deserve. Nokia is now on the list. I have tried to own this 5g play for the last year and it has stopped me out every time; too eager and too loose with the technicals. Regardless, at these levels, if Nokia does not get bought out, and that's a big if now with cheap money still sloshing about, I want to own it. It really deserves to bottom here, and if it starts basing it's worth a crack in the new year on a technical break. If it ends up going nowhere I think it will be bought out, but the price may have to be suppressed for a long while for that to become palatable.

The worst case scenario would likely be a merger, though I would suspect NOK would pop on that and the other half would get dragged down, but it depends on the partner, maybe ERIC, or MSFT who would want a cheap price after taking it in the shorts on the handsets, but anyone who wants in the 5g hardware space would be on this. MSFT has had a great run, and maybe taking over NOK would represent the top in the stock. Also worth noting that trying to catch NOK may be the foolish pick in the 5g space, as ERIC is every bit as competitive, and its price action is better. So far ERIC is the winner, I own it and will add. I view these as very long holds, 5-10 yrs likely.

China tensions are tailwinds for both these stocks. I have zero interest in any China stocks right now due to escalating unrest, rising tariffs, security concerns, and massive China debt. There is not a lot of competition in this space, and  both companies are winning contracts on a steady basis. 5g is a certainty. ERIC is showing positive price action, NOK broken for now.


Early winner/loser in 5g, Ericsson ERIC, Nokia NOK

I like to start collecting stock tickers for after the new year, stocks that have been beaten down and window dressed more than they deserve...