Monday, June 20, 2011

2 strong charts

Terrible market, best be in cash, but for the active long traders, here are a couple worth watching.

Both these tickers are at major resistance, so they will need to break through with volume, respect the breakout levels once they break through, and be prompt about it as, again, going long in this choppy market is not advisable. If the general market does turn up with conviction, and their industry or region is strong, these could be leaders:

NOC. Watch the ITA (aerospace index) chart which is in a nice looking consolidation. If the ITA breaks out, NOC should be responding, if not leading. This is a defense stock, so it will not apply to a SRI or 'green' portfolio:

EWM: This region has been strong, I am also watching IDX closely. You have to be able to tolerate gaps and news driven events that are disconnected from the US, so plan accordingly. If you plot the EWM over the SPX, you will notice that EWM is sympathetic, so make sure the market is working or at least neutral and EWM may continue to outperform. You can also watch the movement of the EEM for support, like you would do the ITA for NOC, iykwim ;) I've taken a preemptive position in this one (higher risk than waiting for price and volume confirmation) but keeping it smaller, probably look to sell if it dips back under 14.75, can always get back in on the break.

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

mid-season report on predictions for 2011

I don't trade based on guesses on what will happen months ahead but I had to throw my hat in the ring for the fun of it. Here are my predictions and comments in (parentheses) on how I am fairing so far:

Gold/Precious metals: Still upside (nice and vague for the win!... so far)

Food and Water: Biggest upside into 2012 and beyond, outperforms all commodities. Invest in water, hoard physical. (Ah... no. but the charts appear to be basing for another run. I still think this has much potential)

Market as a whole: May have a significant pullback, but ends up for year. My guess is N shaped, up, down, up. Second guess is V shape, down soon, then up. Cycle theory says this is most probable, but I am going with N. (well, the N shape is shaping, though more like a tilda since N is really impossible)

Semi's may lurch back, but gain for the year (shoulda said M shape for first half)

UNG and TBT: Still too early. Maybe TBT in last quarter. Oil up, but not enough to help UNG and solar. (correct so far)

Solar: still, and always, sucks (and I am a fan), ...until 2nd half, then start moving (Correct, and I have no idea why I thought solar will move in the second half of the year, or at all this decade, but we'll see)

Homies: still suck, all year (correct)

Telecom: Outperforms in a boring way (yes, up so far)

Retail: Outperforms in a no one can believe it way (eyeball glance says 6% gain so far, not bad)

Energy: Good first half, bad second. (good first quarter, bad second, see how this one plays out)

Finnies: Gets everyone lathered, then breaks hearts. (so far, yes)

Super Bowl: Ravens or Falcons... Falcons it is. (did you pick the Packers?)

British Open: Els

Wimpleton: Murray, feel good story.

Tour: Schleck

Bolt goes 9.54 (struggling 9.91 in Rome making this seem unlikely. Get back on the juice Bolt!)

ASP: Fanning

Coin flip: Tails

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

What choppy market?

Well, the SPY broke the channel to the upside, technically looking very bullish, and then gave it all back and then some. So it seems we are back to the chop that has defined the market since late February. Regardless of this broad characterization of the market there have been places to put your money that have been in bullish trends.

One quick example is the XLP. When things get shaky, consumer staples, that is pretty basic stuff. Indeed the XLP was futzing about for a bit, but once it started breaking out (again) for good, one had plenty of time to notice and start looking at some consumer staple stocks.

NUS had sent off a signal flare with a gap up and huge volume day, pulled back to digest in orderly fashion, and then took off for a 25%+ gain in short order. The big gains and volume came in while the index was well into the breakout, so even if you did not get in on the gap or pullback, you could have bought at a couple breakout levels and still have caught most the move.

So the lesson is to monitor the industries, look for the uptrends, and then do some stock picking. There is always a bull market somewhere.