Wednesday, June 15, 2011

mid-season report on predictions for 2011

I don't trade based on guesses on what will happen months ahead but I had to throw my hat in the ring for the fun of it. Here are my predictions and comments in (parentheses) on how I am fairing so far:

Gold/Precious metals: Still upside (nice and vague for the win!... so far)

Food and Water: Biggest upside into 2012 and beyond, outperforms all commodities. Invest in water, hoard physical. (Ah... no. but the charts appear to be basing for another run. I still think this has much potential)

Market as a whole: May have a significant pullback, but ends up for year. My guess is N shaped, up, down, up. Second guess is V shape, down soon, then up. Cycle theory says this is most probable, but I am going with N. (well, the N shape is shaping, though more like a tilda since N is really impossible)

Semi's may lurch back, but gain for the year (shoulda said M shape for first half)

UNG and TBT: Still too early. Maybe TBT in last quarter. Oil up, but not enough to help UNG and solar. (correct so far)

Solar: still, and always, sucks (and I am a fan), ...until 2nd half, then start moving (Correct, and I have no idea why I thought solar will move in the second half of the year, or at all this decade, but we'll see)

Homies: still suck, all year (correct)

Telecom: Outperforms in a boring way (yes, up so far)

Retail: Outperforms in a no one can believe it way (eyeball glance says 6% gain so far, not bad)

Energy: Good first half, bad second. (good first quarter, bad second, see how this one plays out)

Finnies: Gets everyone lathered, then breaks hearts. (so far, yes)

Super Bowl: Ravens or Falcons... Falcons it is. (did you pick the Packers?)

British Open: Els

Wimpleton: Murray, feel good story.

Tour: Schleck

Bolt goes 9.54 (struggling 9.91 in Rome making this seem unlikely. Get back on the juice Bolt!)

ASP: Fanning

Coin flip: Tails

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