Monday, January 2, 2012

2011 Carnac prediction results

Any bloviator worth their salt has to make a bunch of ridiculous predictions that don't count for much, so let's review how I did. My calls are below and my year end comments follow in Bold:

Gold/Precious metals: still upside

This was a no brainer, and my best long trade this year was in silver, my longest hold of the year, see the trade review here. Even if you blew it and held a GLD position all year you are still up 10%.

Food and Water: Biggest upside into 2012 and beyond, outperforms all commodities. Invest in water, hoard physical.

My worst call. Worse is that it is a worst call scenario for the world over. Shame on me for even inducing this sort of armageddon-like thinking, save that stuff for the malcontents. "hoard physical"... still love that. F+


Semi's may lurch back, but gain for the year.

Wrong both ways, it ripped in the first of the year, then ended down. F-


Market as a whole: May have a significant pullback, but ends up for year. My guess is N shaped, up, down, up. Second guess is V shape, down soon, then up. Cycle theory says this is most probable, but I am going with N.

Well, certainly had a significant pullback, and there is a N shape there, but this is a C- at best.


UNG and TBT: Still too early. Maybe TBT in last quarter. Oil up, but not enough to help UNG and solar.

UNG and TBT are dead, still. B+


Solar: still, and always, sucks (and I am a fan), ...until 2nd half, then start moving

D+. No second half bounce. This business needs to trim down and needs more time. The frakking nat gas bonanza is a game changer and it is hard to see how things will pan out on this, but it likely means a smoothing out of energy prices and an ill omen for alt fuels.

Homies: still suck, all year

My solar prediction would have been perfect for homebuilders. D+

Telecom: Outperforms in a boring way

Underperforms in a boring way. D

Retail: Outperforms in a no one can believe it way

Indeed, but not hugely. C

Energy: Good first half, bad second.

By XLU, spot on. A

Finnies: Gets everyone lathered, then breaks hearts.

Didn't even get anyone lathered, still braking hearts. B

Super Bowl: Ravens or Falcons... Falcons it is.

D. you picked the Pacs? I know, with the sports picks you just could say either A or F.

British Open: Els

F

Wimpleton: Murray, feel good story.

C

Tour: Schleck

B, second and third good but need more PED's for win. Evans? Wow, great pick for those that made it.

Bolt goes 9.54

9.7 is closest he got, needs to stop driving... and more PED's. C


ASP: Fanning

K11 = F

Coin flip: Tails

[flipping coin] Tails! A+ I needed that ;)

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