Thursday, January 13, 2011

Carnac predictions for 2011

I really wanted to do this in December, but my trading style has changed so much that making macro predictions is not worth my time. But it is fun, so I just came up with some categories, took some guesses, and made vague statements like 'outperform':

Gold/Precious metals: still upside

Food and Water: Biggest upside into 2012 and beyond, outperforms all commodities. Invest in water, hoard physical.

Semi's may lurch back, but gain for the year

Market as a whole: May have a significant pullback, but ends up for year. My guess is N shaped, up, down, up. Second guess is V shape, down soon, then up. Cycle theory says this is most probable, but I am going with N.

UNG and TBT: Still too early. Maybe TBT in last quarter. Oil up, but not enough to help UNG and solar.

Solar: still, and always, sucks (and I am a fan), ...until 2nd half, then start moving

Homies: still suck, all year

Telecom: Outperforms in a boring way

Retail: Outperforms in a no one can believe it way

Energy: Good first half, bad second.

Finnies:Gets everyone lathered, then breaks hearts.

Super Bowl: Ravens or Falcons... Falcons it is.

British Open: Els

Wimpleton: Murray, feel good story.

Tour: Schleck

Bolt goes 9.54

ASP: Fanning

Coin flip: Tails

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